面对“奥密克戎”我们躺平还是清零？

前段时间发生了一件很有意思的新闻—从2月1日起，欧盟27国全面解封，并声称两年多的疫情走到了尾声，美国也宣布，从2月2日起，停止统计新冠数据，中国专家推测，为半年内将会有60%的欧洲人感染奥米克戎。不过欧美确实把这次病情当成了大号流感，大家都认为扛扛就过去了，反正大家都打了疫苗，偶尔死几个，也算是他们倒霉，不关自己的事，是时候该放飞自我了。

     有些专家说，奥密克戎会跟人类长期共存，看看免疫系统能不能压制病毒。这时就有外国人想不通了，为什么几乎全世界都躺平了唯独中国还在坚持动态清零？而且这两年中国的经济可以说是水深火热，人民的生活也受到了很大的影响，为什么还要坚持呢？

     国外确实解封了，奥密克戎看起来也确实不如前两拨的新冠那么严重，但是中国至少暂时是不能的，这里头是有原因的。

     一是还没有一个病毒专家说这波疫情是最后一波，也不敢保证奥秘，克荣以后会不会发生变异，杀一个回马枪之类的，也就是说疫情具有不可预知性，如果他又突然变严重，造成大量死亡，谁又负得起责任？

     做事谨慎，是中国政府的特点，我们也应该耐着性子等一等，再看看情况。欧美已经被病毒洗过两遍了，他们都麻木了，我们不能人云亦云，得再观察一段时间。

     另一个原因是更深层次的—欧美国家承担得起这个损失，我们不能。

     这是因为他们是小政府模式，我们是大政府模式，这种宏观制度的差异造成了这个原因。

     这两种模式，决定了政府将采取什么措施。小政府是一家有限责任的公司，遇到麻烦大不了破产同组，一般寿命也才几年，他并没有深入到基层组织，所以动员能力也非常差，群众一骂得狠，首相随时准备跑路，因此对人民给予了更多自由空间。民众对政府也不给予很高的希望，觉得把基本的活干完就行，平时少来烦我们。

      而大政府模式，就截然不同了。

     大政府是一家无限责任公司，不能破产重组，而且寿命也没有规定限期，有深入到最基层的组织脉络，能够控制国家的各种细节，动员能力也非常强，但一旦遇到了困难无处可逃，因此他给予人民的自由空间也会少一点，民众因此也对政府产生了特别高的期望—你什么都得管，你不管我就投诉你。

     再回来，为什么中国还在坚持动态清零？因为我们的大政府城制度承受不了解封之后的后果。到今天美国确诊人数高达7500万，死了90.5万人，病死率约为1.2%，差不多全美人口23%都感染过新冠，每百万人中有2551人死于新冠。中国现在是每百万人中三人死于新冠。按照美国的比例算，我们一解封将会有360万人死于习惯新冠，这个后果是大政府模式无法承担的。现在喊着要躺平的人，到时后肯定也是最激烈批评政府的，不管百姓死活的人。

     现在欧美居然在给我们提供一些“既符和防疫需求，又符合外交惯例的方案”，要我们放弃动态清零，这就是在给我们挖坑，要是中国像其他国家一样躺平，死十几百万人不知道要面对多大的抨击，这些抨击是身为小政府制度的美国无法体会的。

     中国人永远理解不了为什么90多万人命丧黄泉，美国民众还是无动于衷，美国人也无法理解中国人为什么还在坚持。

     骨子里，是两个国家的人，都对对方实行几百年的政治逻辑不理解，美国人不理解中国人，中国人也不理解美国人。

A very interesting piece of news happened some time ago-from February 1st, the 27 EU countries have fully lifted the lockdown, claiming that the two-year-old epidemic has come to an end, and the United States has also announced that it will stop counting the new crown from February 2nd. According to the data, Chinese experts speculate that 60% of Europeans will be infected with Omicron within six months. However, Europe and the United States do regard this illness as a big flu. Everyone thinks that it will be over. Anyway, everyone has been vaccinated, and a few die occasionally. They are considered unlucky. It is not their own business. .

     Some experts say Omicron will coexist with humans for a long time to see if the immune system can suppress the virus. At this time, some foreigners can't figure it out. Why is almost the whole world lying flat, but China is still insisting on dynamic clearing? Moreover, China's economy in the past two years can be said to be in dire straits, and people's lives have also been greatly affected. Why insist on it?

     Foreign countries have indeed lifted the blockade, and Omikron does not seem to be as serious as the new crowns of the first two waves, but China cannot at least temporarily, and there is a reason for this.

     First, no virus expert has said that this wave of epidemics is the last wave, and they cannot guarantee the mystery, whether Kerong will mutate in the future, kill a carbine, etc., which means that the epidemic is unpredictable. It suddenly becomes serious and causes a large number of deaths, who can be held responsible?

     Caution in doing things is a characteristic of the Chinese government, and we should also wait patiently and see the situation. Europe and the United States have been washed twice by the virus, and they are all numb. We can't follow what others say, and we have to observe for a while.

     Another reason is deeper - European and American countries can afford this loss, we can't.

     This is because they are a small government model, we are a big government model, and this difference in macro systems causes this reason.

     These two models determine what measures the government will take. The small government is a company with limited liability. When in trouble, the group goes bankrupt. The average life expectancy is only a few years. He has not penetrated into the grassroots organizations, so his mobilization ability is also very poor. , thus giving more freedom to the people. The people also do not have high hopes for the government. They feel that it is enough to finish the basic work, and they don’t usually bother us.

      The big government model is quite different.

     The big government is an unlimited liability company, it cannot go bankrupt and reorganize, and there is no fixed lifespan. It has an organizational context that goes deep to the lowest level, can control various details of the country, and has a very strong mobilization ability, but once it encounters difficulties, there is nowhere to go. Therefore, he will give the people less room for freedom, and the people therefore have particularly high expectations for the government - you have to manage everything, and I will complain to you if you don't care.

     Come back again, why is China still insisting on dynamic clearing? Because our big government city system bears the consequences of not lifting the lockdown. As of today, the number of confirmed diagnoses in the United States is as high as 75 million, and 905,000 people have died. The case fatality rate is about 1.2%. Almost 23% of the U.S. population has been infected with the new crown, and 2,551 people per million people died of the new crown. China now has three deaths per million from Covid-19. According to the proportion of the United States, once we lift the lockdown, 3.6 million people will die from getting used to the new crown, and this consequence cannot be borne by the big government model. The person who is shouting to lie down now will definitely be the one who criticizes the government the most fiercely in the future, regardless of whether the people live or die.

     Now Europe and the United States are actually providing us with some "plans that meet the needs of epidemic prevention and diplomatic practice." They want us to give up dynamic clearing, which is digging a hole for us. If China lay flat like other countries, more than a dozen people would die. Millions of people don't know the magnitude of the attack that America, as a system of small government, cannot understand.

     The Chinese will never understand why more than 900,000 people died in Huangquan, the American people are still indifferent, and the Americans cannot understand why the Chinese are still insisting.

     In their bones, people from two countries do not understand the political logic that the other party has practiced for hundreds of years. The Americans do not understand the Chinese, and the Chinese do not understand the Americans.